How Ethiopian-Americans for Change efforts led to a surge in support for Deeds

by EA4C Staff Writer

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Creigh Deeds and the Democratic ticket suffered a sweeping defeat, turning what Obama turned into a “Blue State” back into the red column of the Republican Party.  The loss suffered by the Democrats was stunning in scope and magnitude.  Not only did the Democratic Party lose its hold of the Governor’s mansion, they also lost the Lt. Governor’s election and the Attorney General’s election. Furthermore, the Democrats also lost control of the State House.  And in a completly jaw-dropping fashion, Deeds not only lost statewide, he lost in Democratic strongholds such as Fairfax and in Northern Virginia as a whole.

The one “Blue” spot in a sea of Northern Virginia red occurred in the City of Alexandria and Arlington.  Amazingly, these were the only areas that Deeds won.  These two cities are part of the 8th Congressional District, a district which is home to a massive Ethiopian-American community.  By showing up in droves to the polls, Ethiopian-Americans were able to join a coalition of voters that kept at least one part of Northern Virginia blue.  The turnout of Ethiopians in support of Creigh Deeds did not happen in a vacuum.  Creigh Deeds reached out to the Ethiopian community on October 17th.  Based on that outreach, Ethiopian-Americans for Change formally endorsed Creigh Deeds and the Democratic slate.  In order to gauge the level of support that Creigh Deeds enjoyed, Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted a scientific poll two days after Deed’s initial outreach.

The support Deeds enjoyed at that time from the Ethiopian-American community was anemic at best.  The first poll revealed that Deed’s support level stood at an astonishing 28%.  Moreover, only 45% of Ethiopians intended on voting on November 3rd.  Based on these findings, Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted an intensive voter outreach effort from October 19 through election night.  In order to gauge the effectiveness of our effort,Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted a second round of surveys to over 14,000 registered Ethiopians who live in the eight congressional district in the days leading up to the big election on November 3rd in Virginia.  This was a follow up poll to get a feel of how the race is going and how much of an impact the Ethiopian-American community can have on the outcome of the state-wide race.  The turnaround between the first poll (Oct 19th -21st) and the latest poll (Oct 31st-Nov 1st) was stunning.

• A 20 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they are currently registered (from 68.1% to 88%). This was not due to newly registered voters, rather, it was due in the increase of awareness on behalf of folks who voted last year yet thought they were not registered for this election
• A 26 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they were aware of the Nov. 3rd election (from 45% to 71%)
• A 22 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they plan on voting on November 3rd (from 36.3% to 58%)
• A stunning 28 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they plan on voting for Deeds (from 28.8% to 56%)

We did not have a data set from the previous poll for Jody Wagner, but on the latest poll, Jody Wagner was garnering 53% of the Ethiopian vote while Bolling was mired at 3.0%.

The massive shift can be explained in part by the sustained efforts Ethiopian-Americans for Change has made upon endorsing Creigh Deeds and the Democratic slate.

Consider:

1. Made over 2,500 phone calls using the database of 14,000 + registered Ethiopian voters we have from the 8th Congressional District

2. Held the “Meet the Candidates” forum where we introduced Deeds, Wagner et al to the Ethiopian community

3. Passed out over 2,000 flyers and posters to Ethiopian businesses and individuals

4. Sent out 4 emails to our Ethiopian-Americans for Change email database

5. Sent out countless press releases to generate interest from Ethiopian media

6. Leveraged our website (EA4C.org), facebook and twitter accounts to build up excitement within and outside of the Ethiopian community

7. Customized a youtube commercial on behalf of Deeds to the Ethiopian community

Based on these results, we are confident that our effort in the 8th Congressional District increased turnout significantly and netted Deeds anywhere from 3,500 to 5,000 votes.  When the multiplier effect that our efforts had  in other districts that have a heavy Ethiopian presence (10th, 11th, and the 7th), the Ethiopian-American community would have cast a decisive vote if the election this year was as close as the election in 2005.

For full detail of the poll and any follow up questions, contact media@ea4c.org.  Raw numbers from the poll will be made available for all media outlet that have a valid credential.

For press availability, email media@ea4c.org with a subject header that states “Interview Request”.

Vote on November 3rd in Virginia

Written by EA4C Staff

Dated:  Monday, November 2, 2009

Do you remember the euphoria of November 4^th 2008?  Do you remember the magic you felt when folks of all races, genders, ethnic groups, and religions joined hand for one common goal—change.  There stood Ethiopians for Obama joined hands with Eritreans for Obama.  There stood Arab-Americans for Obama united with Jewish Americans for Obama.  There stood an avowed atheist embracing a devoted Christian. For one brief moment, for one fleeting campaign, it seemed as though we were indeed at the footsteps of mountain top that Martin Luther King espoused in his dream.  For one shinning moment, we became one out of many—E Pluribus Unum.   

But that one shinning moment was but a milestone on a long journey towards the continued perfection of our nation.  Like Martin Luther King said, we are not there yet.  The problems of an opportunity gap, the menace of inequality based race, gender, or religion, or the threat of economic hardship did not disappear in one election.  Electing Obama on November 4^th was merely a down payment; an investment in hope that we would only reap with  continued engagement in our country’s civic process.  One vote was not enough to undo eight years of Bush policies.  One vote is not enough to realize the returns on our investment in hope.

No other state in the United States symbolized this transformational moment more than the Commonwealth of Virginia.  What was once a deep red enclave of the Republican party voted overwhelmingly for Obama.  What was once the capital of the Confederacy gave a resounding victory to the possibility of change.  Yet, here we stand today on the eve of an important election faced with the possibility of Virginia becoming once more a Republican enclave.  November 3^rd is an important test of our commitment to change.  This election is an important test of our commitment to that fleeting moment of hope that last year’s election represented.

Barack Obama always said that last year’s election was not about him, it was about us.  That is why thousands of young and young at heart from across America knocked on doors, made phone calls, contributed to Obama’s campaign, and registered to vote in droves.  In Virginia alone, over 500,000 people registered for and voted Obama—an overwhelming number of which voted for the first time.  It is time for those 500,000, and those of us who vote all the time, to decide.  It is time to stop remembering and start acting. In a close race between Democratic Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell, if only one third of the first time voters from last year vote on November 3^rd, Virginia will remain a blue state.  In your hands, in your action, you hold the possibility of a continued clarion call of change or if Virginia reverts back to George Bush policies.

Ethiopian-Americans for Change endorses Creigh Deeds for Governor, Jody Wagner for Lieutenant Governor, Steve Shannon for Attorney General, and the rest of the Democratic slate. This decision was not arrived at reflexively.  An invitation was sent out to both the Republican party and the Democratic Party to come and speak to our community.  The Republican party had prior commitments, the Democratic Party came out in full force accompanied by Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner, and Charniele Herring.  Based on the Democratic Party’s embrace of our invitation, those in attendance during the “Meet the Candidates” forum voted 100% to endorse the Democratic slate.   

So if you are getting this email and live in Virginia, we implore you to go vote on November 3^rd. If you are getting this email and you live outside of Virginia, please pick up your phone and call a family member or a friend who lives in Virginia and encourage them to vote for Deeds, Wagner, Shannon, and the rest of the Democratic candidates.  If you voted last year during the historic election in Virginia, you are already registered and can vote on November 3^rd.  Please forward this email to everyone you know who lives in Virginia and cc info@ea4c.org on the email.  As you vote on November 3^rd, please email ivoted@ea4c.org and tell us that you voted.

It is easy to revel in the euphoria of last year’s election, however, without our continued involvement in the political process, that euphoria will wilt in the face of a determined opposition that seek to return us to the status quo.  It is up to you to choose action over memory.  So whether you are Ethiopian, Eritrean, Jewish, Arab, Latino, Asian, African, black, white, Christian, Muslim, just think back to last year when we shed our differences and came together as one in our belief in hope and the possibility of change.  It is time for us to stop remembering and start doing. On November 3^rd, it is time for you to vote for Deeds, Wagner, Shannon.  We urge you to choose the fierce urgency of action over the fleeting whims of memory. Please vote.

Without a vote, you are voiceless

written by EA4C Staff

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Know your rights as a citizen

Ethiopian-Americans for Change is hosting Know Your Rights forum on Thursday, October 29th at Enat Restaurant in Alexandria VA.  This event is free to the public.  There will be a panel of election rights and registration experts who will answer your questions and give a complete overview of your rights as a citizen of the United States of American.  If you have questions about the registration process, don’t know if you are still registred, or just have questions in general about the election process, this is an opportunity to come out and get your questions answered.

Event Details:

Location:  Enat Ethiopian Restaurant

Address:  4708 N. Chambliss St.  Alexandria VA

Time:  7:30 PM – 9:00 PM EST

This event is free and open to the public.  EA4C is requesting media assets to be deployed in order to cover this event fully.  Please email media@ea4c.org at least 4 hours before the event in order to receive media credentials.

With the Virginia Gubernatorial election only a week away, voter awareness is a key concern

Written by EA4C Staff

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Last year’s historic election was a watershed moment for Ethiopian-Americans.  Prior to last year’s election, taking part in the political process was a key component that was missing from an otherwise massive Ethiopian populace.  Ethiopians constitute the second largest immigrants from the Africa.  Estimates range from 200,000 Ethiopians who reside in America on the low end to over 500,000 on the high end.

Nowhere is this more evident that the Commonwealth of Virginia.  As with the population count overall, there is no reliable data that can quantify the exact number of Ethiopians who live in Virginia.  However, a number that has been cited by  respected authorities is that there are at least 80,000 Ethiopians who live in Virginia.  A database of registered voters that was gathered by Ethiopians for Obama last year for the 8th Congressional District shows that there is indeed a large bloc of Ethiopian voters in Alexandria alone.

In order to determine the accuracy of the data set, Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted a poll from October 19th through the 21st.  There were over 600 calls that were made, and once a sufficient number of answers were collected vis-a-vis the overall population of registered voters,  a statistical analysis was conducted.  The results were quite profound.

Male or Female?

What is your age range?

Are you Ethiopian?

How long have you been in the United States?

Are you currently registered to vote?

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, or an Independent?

Did you vote in the 2008 Presidential Election

Did you vote for Obama last year?

Did you know the Virginia Gubernatorial race is taking place on November 3rd?

Do you plan on voting this year?

Do you plan on voting for Deeds, McDonnell, or neither?

Based on the results of the poll, it is evident that there are quite a lot of Ethiopians who are not aware that the Virginia Gubernatorial election is taking place in just one week.  This is not too surprising since Virginia and New Jersey are the only states that have off-year elections.  Another interesting fact, and one that is striking, is that over 30% of the respondents who voted in last year’s election believe that they are currently not registered.  Of course, the fact is quite to the contrary; whoever voted in last year’s election in Virginia is already registered to vote.

Another outcome that stood out is that 56% of those surveyed consider themselves Democrats, while only 4.4% considered themselves Republicans.  However, in a development that has a potential huge impact on the November 3rd election, the level of support that Creigh Deeds is currently garnering is only 29% ( a tremendous drop-off from the support that Obama received last year) while McDonnell is receiving support from 7.7% of those who responded.  Thus, with the election only a week away, there is a large swath of Ethiopian-Americans who are persuadable yet not sure who is running.  If the election is anywhere close to the 2005 outcome between Deeds and McDonnell, Ethiopian-Americans can indeed cast a decisive vote on November 3rd.

This EA4C poll was conducted by telephone October 19-21, 2009, among a random local sample of 160 from an overall population size of 14,259 Registered Ethiopian voters in the 8th Congressional District in Virginia, including land-line respondents only. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 7.7 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by EA4C.org | GRAPHIC: EA4C.org